Author: Isaac

Categories
politics

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Once again, I saw an article extolling the “record” of national safety after 9/11 under W. “There hasn’t been another attack since he initiated programs like the Patriot act and Gitmo…” Of course I could also point out that I haven’t been mauled by a tiger in that time frame either. Is that a coincidence?

While it is possible that those policies have prevented another 9/11, the identification of cause and effect is far from clear. When you are trying to judge the effectiveness of any given policy, it is important to look at not only if any objective is met, but how likely it is that that particular policy had anything to do with it. You also need to look at the costs involved. That’s not just dollars and cents BTW. You have to factor in the loss of civil liberties, the expansion of executive power, and the damage our reputation has suffered world-wide due to these policies.

“But surely the important thing is that he did something!” Remember, just because government is doing something, it doesn’t mean that it is the cause of any given nicety. The fallacy of “this came before that, therefore this caused that” is alive and well in the political rhetoric, I hope people can remember to look at claims logically…

Categories
economics

Anti-goughing bullshit

Just the other night, my mother remarked “People that deliberately raise prices during an emergency should be arrested.” I didn’t feel like getting into it at the time so I just told her that it was a more complicated situation than she was allowing for. Well, here it is a few days later and guess what? Many gas stations around here are running out of gas!

Why do you think that is? “That’s obvious Isaac, there was a hurricane that disrupted the gas supplies.” Yes, that’s true, but it’s only half the reason. There is less gas, but the other important point is that people kept using it at the same rate they always did. The result? No gas.

This is not unavoidable. There is no reason to run out of gas even when there is a supply crunch. Let me try to explain it this way. People kept using gas like they normally do because there wasn’t any obvious sign that there was less gas to go around. If people had read up on the wholesale gas situation, they may have decided to conserve since they knew it was going to be in short supply. Let’s forget the fact that no one reads that kind of stuff, they wouldn’t conserve even if they had. In fact, they would have tried to consume more. Why? Wouldn’t you? If you knew that we were going to run out of gas soon, wouldn’t you try to get some while there were supplies?

So the trick is to tell people that there is less to go around AND make them willingly conserve. How in the world do we do that? RAISE THE EFFING PRICE FOR GOD”S SAKE! High gas prices are not a crisis, no gas is. When you raise the price, people will use less of it. And here’s the real beauty of it, it doesn’t matter why the price is higher, people will automatically conserve in reaction to the higher price. All the information you need to have as far as how scarce something is, or how in demand it is, is reflected in the price. If the price is “high,” you know it is in high demand or there is a scarcity of that thing. People will use less of it with a higher price, and the demand will slack off and the price comes down eventually.

It works really well, that is unless there is government interference in the pricing system. Due to so-called gouging laws, retailers cannot raise the price as far as it should be in order for gas to be readily available. So I hope that everyone that supported this law is happy about having to scrounge for gas. Actually, that’s just a dream, I know full well that those people will never put these two things together…

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Categories
odds and ends

Score!

I went over to the localish Apple place and Apple is going to give me a new battery.. tomorrow! I was afraid I was going to have to buy a new one and I got no money right now. Anyway, they came through for me. I was lucky (?) enough to have a battery that had been recalled, so I get a new one!

The place I went to was interesting too. It’s called Connecting Point and apparently they have been an Apple repair center from way back. They still have promo posters for the Newton and the original Macintosh line up on the walls. Anyway, they were nice enough, and I will have a fully functional computer tomorrow!

Categories
politics

More on those polls

I’m still incredulous about those polls. It’s difficult to believe how much ground the democrats have given up. Here’s a really good podcast on why you should be suspicious about those polls. It’s quite in depth, and actually really interesting. I recommend it highly if you want to make some sense about all those numbers that are thrown out there.

Categories
odds and ends

I’m back!

I am on my own computer again. I can post without it, but I really prefer to use the programs on my computer to post… A few observations:

I hate Fed-ex. They may be excellent in next day deliveries, I wouldn’t know, I’ve never used them for that. All I know is that EVERY TIME I have used them for ground service, they have screwed up and/or pissed me off. I understand that things happen from time to time, but I think they’re 5 for 5 with me. This time, I ordered a new power supply. The website said that it would take 1-5 days. That’s fine, by Thursday, it had gotten to the Hampton distribution center. I had been tracking it and they had estimated that it would be delivered on the 15th but here it was the 11th and it was a truck ride away from me. So the next day, I checked the tracking, expecting them to have put it on the truck. Nope. The tracking info said, “Not due for delivery.” They didn’t deliver it on friday, I had to wait until Monday. WTF? It was there, and they didn’t deliver it. I had sworn off shipping via Fed-Ex a long time ago, now I’m going to make sure that I won’t be using them for delivery…

I’m not out of the woods yet. I allowed my battery to wear down in the computer… for a week. Now I have both power adaptors (one for home, one will live on my computer bag), but my battery is not being recognized by my computer. I’ve read a few forums and it sounds like the battery is going to need to be replaced. If I’m lucky, Apple will replace it for me, they had a recall on them. I’ll let you know how it goes…

So I used mom’s computer in the meantime. It was nice of her to leave it over the weekend for me. I gotta say, I’m glad to be back on my machine. Firefox 3 seems really unstable on Vista, at least it was on that machine. It kept crashing. Oh, and how did I ever live before RSS feeds? It was weird to have to actually go to the websites to see if anything new had been added…

I had an awful weekend. I had been told early n the week that I needed a root canal. It didn’t surprise me, the thing was hurting quite a bit. I was on a steady diet of pain killers. Nothing too heavy. I still have a bottle of vicadin extra strength left over from my previous tooth issue. I try to stay away from narcotics because, like alcohol, they scare me. However, I do recognize that, like alcohol, they have their uses. No, I was on Alieve, Tylonal, and Excedrin. Not all at the same time, I rotated them. The hell of it is that my tooth didn’t bother me this weekend, but my GI system tried to kill me. Without going into details, I didn’t sleep for two nights… I’ve stopped with the pain pills, and now my tooth and my stomach are fine. I hate side effects…

Anyway, I’m back and I will try to put up a few more posts both here and my music blog too…

Categories
politics

What’s going on in North Korea?

Rumors are flying that Kim Jong-Il had a stroke. There’s no telling what kind of maneuvering is going on behind the scenes now. He has a couple of sons I think, but neither of them are in line to inherit anything. My guess is that some sort of military group will be the next to come to power. With any luck, this will be the beginning of the end for North Korea’s isolation. Down with Kim Jong-Il! Just about anything will be better…

Categories
politics

Are they going to blow it?

If you had asked me 8 months ago if the democrats could lose this election, I would’ve said “No way.” Without even knowing who was going to run, it was clear that the dems would have the election handed to them on a silver platter. Well, take a look at this.

I treat the elections a lot like the NFL. I don’t have a team that I follow, but I do enjoy watching the contest. If the democrats lose this (and let’s be clear, this election was theirs to lose), it will be one of the great choke jobs of all time. I’m not loosing any sleep over it, our next president will be a big step up no matter who wins…

Categories
odds and ends

Had a good time at the beach

Not that I went to the beach much 🙂 What can I say? Im not a beach person. I don’t like being in the sun (or using sunscreen), sand, or salt water. I did go down a couple of times and it was a really nice beach, just not my scene. We did, however, have a pool right by the house, and a hot tub. Those were really nice and I used them quite a bit.

The house was huge and the weather was basically perfect. The best thing of course was seeing everyone. I never get to see Kelly and Patrick, Carolee, and I only see Brian on occasion. It was great to see everyone, we need to get together more often.

Of course everyone made fun of me the whole time for avoiding the kids. It’s true that kids put me on edge, I just feel totally out of my element around them, especially the really young ones. But I have to admit that the kids were very well behaved, and I was downright impressed with Sean (K&P’s kid), he didn’t bother me in the slightest!:-) Seriously, it’s probably a good thing for me to be in that situation from time to time, edge or no. So the kids were fine, but I am glad it was a big house… 🙂

Categories
odds and ends

Grrr…

I left my power adaptor up at Rick’s. So I may or may not post anything or be in touch for a little while. I use this tonight until my battery runs out. Grumble grumble grumble.

Categories
odds and ends

A slight change in plans

Well, we came back from NC today. Hanna passed by us to the west, all we got was some rain and some stiff winds, no big deal. I’m going up with Rick to Falls Church. The car situation got a little crazy and I have to go up with him in order to bring mom’s truck back. I was planning on staying there for a week or so, but my tooth is acting up. It’s the same one that i just got a new filling for. It had been annoying and really sensitive to cold, but no big deal with some pain killers. That all changed last night when it really flared up. We’re talking drenching the sheets with sweat kind of pain. It went away and it’s OK now (with some aspirin) but I’m not about to have another night like last night. I’ll take my vicoden up to Rick’s in case I have a repeat, and with any luck I’ll have this thing takes care of on mon. or tue…

So I’m not sure when I’ll get up to the DC area. One of my friends will be moving soon, so I need to get up there before too long. Maybe next week…