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Frederick Mosteller died today…

He was the first statistician that had a real impact on me. His book “Data Analysis and Regression” coauthored with John Tukey was the first time I had encountered any thinking when dealing with statistics. Until then, all of the statistics books I had read were purely mechanical. You have a normal distribution, your mean is this, your median is that. You calculate standard deviation like so. Mosteller’s book started out asking how normal was the distribution? How can you be sure of what you are measuring and how can you minimize the errors when trying to discern the central tendency of that invisible distribution underlying your data? He showed how it was easy to confuse a normal distribution with a so called “dirty” normal distribution. The dirty normal was a kind of worse case scenario for statisticians in that the data looked like a typical normal distribution, but the actual trend that you were trying to study deviated from a normal distribution in some substantial ways.

What this means is that if you took an arithmetical mean (the average) of your data, it would be significantly different than the actual center point of the underlying trend. He used a variety of trimmed means and studies of Kurtosis (how normal is your normal distribution) in order to minimize errors when trying to estimate central tendencies.

I know, I’m a big geek. But the man made statistics something worth thinking about! I admired his approach (if not his rather obtuse writing style) and his book gave me quite an insight into how statistics actually works. Turns out that he was in a nursing home right here in Falls Church! Had I known that I’m sure that I would have gone to visit him once in a while…

You can read more about him and his amazing range of research topics here.

Isaac

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Lunch and Burl Ives

I was thinking about my upcoming trip to Malta with my cousin today at lunch. We had hammered out the dates that she was going to be over there, the 2nd through the 13th of Jan. My plan all along was to get there a day or two before her, just so I could settle in and meet her at the airport and whatnot. Well, that would mean I needed to get there on the 1st. Hmmm, that might be problematic it being a holiday and all. Well how about a couple of days before that? If I was going to get there on the 29th, I might as well get there a little earlier and see Christmas. That wouldn’t be so bad, after all, it would certainly be better spending Christmas in a very Christian place as opposed to a conservative Muslim country where it would be just another day… Maybe I could be in Italy during Christmas, that would be amazing! Christmas in Sicily… kind of like the ring of that. But I don’t know, do I really want to spend the extra money and go through the hassle?

As I was debating in my mind whether I should spend an enjoyable, if more expensive, Christmas in Italy, a strange thing happened. “Have a Holly Jolly Christmas” came on the radio. I kid you not, the 25th of July and Burl effing Ives was on the radio in Arby’s. That’s a bit too random to be random. As Rick says, “Sometimes God speaks to you clearly and directly.” So I’m looking into it. If I can afford it, I’m going to do it.

Isaac

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MOre tubes…

Yes, I know… I shouldn’t be buying any more tubes right now, but they were on sale! Black Plate RCA 6as7g tubes have been a little rich for my blood but I’ve always wanted to try them. I have been told that 6080 tubes and the 6as7 tubes share the same internals but with different envelope shapes. So when Antique Electronics had a sale on 6080 tubes for 5 bucks a piece, I jumped at it. They’re still breaking in, but I’m impressed already by the bass and naturalness of the tones. Right now the music is still a bit muddy, but I don’t even have 5 hours on them. I’ll report back after 50 or 60 hours…

Isaac

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Being “controlled” by corporations

This idea of being controlled by corporations has come up several times in recent online conversations. It’s usually in the context of the government regulating something to protect us form the evil corporations. This puzzles and worries me on several different levels. What strikes me the most is this idea that we are slaves to various companies, that we have no choice in certain things and we are therefore controlled by these companies. Following that line of logic, we are in need of a protector, and most people want the government to play that role. With just a little thought you can see how backwards this really is.

Companies depend on us buying their products and services to survive. It is in their best interest to provide us with what we want. We are the ones that control of the corporations! This is easily shown by the fact that companies regularly go out of business. As long as there is competition between companies for our dollars, we are the ones in control. We always have options, we can buy from a company, not buy from them, buy from their competition, etc. If we do not like their price, their business practices, owners, or whatever, we can choose to do something else.

When we involve the government, our range of choices always decreases. Government ownership being the worst case scenario. Lets use a ridiculous example to make a point. Let’s say that the local power plant decides to start burning babies to provide power. There are people that applaud this decision since babies are messy and loud. Plus, they burn much cleaner than the traditional fossil fuels. You are outraged of course, but what to do, you need power! Well, you have options. You can use some sort of alternative energy source, maybe buy your own generator or install solar panels. In the worst case scenario, you could move somewhere else and use some other power source. The key is that you do not have to use their power and you no longer support what you don’t like. Now imagine that the government owns the power plant. You could choose not to use the power, but you’d still be paying for it. If you decided to make a stand and not pay for it (as you should), you would be thrown in jail, or at least fined. Sounds silly, right? Well, just substitute your least favorite war, educational policy, political junket, or least favorite bit of bureaucratic red tape to see how relevant it really is. When the government is involved, you have to pay no matter what you think of the policies. That’s quite a bit more control than any business could ever have over you.

OK sure, but the government doesn’t own most things, and besides the poor need some sort of protection. They don’t have the same kind of options that you and I have. It’s true that the US government doesn’t own most things (thank God!) but that’s not the case in many countries. The government here may not own as much, but they certainly regulate quite a bit. Regulations have a similar consequence, they cause us to have fewer options. How? By forcing expenses on companies, it raises the cost of entry and operation. his prevents some companies from starting and can cause others to close. By stifling competition, we have fewer choices and pay higher prices. This gets us back to the protection of the poor. The poor wouldn’t need protection if they had adequate choices. In fact, they may choose an option that you wouldn’t because it would save them some money. I’d like to think that everyone, regardless of income bracket, would choose the nuclear power plant over the baby burning one. But not everyone would choose the nuclear plant over a coal burning one. Some would prefer the lower operating expenses of coal, some people just don’t trust nuclear power. Some people wouldn’t choose either, they’d rather pay the extra money and use wind or solar power. The key is that the more choices companies can offer us, the better off we are. They have no control over us, we control them. The government is the one you have to watch out for, it can either limit your choices or control you directly by threat of incarceration (or worse).

The same principles apply to ANY product or service that you can think of. If you let businesses pursue profits, you will have the most extensive range of options, including the lowest possible price. Regulations passed, no matter how well intentioned, will always interfere with someone’s choices. This limits them to them paying more and/or eliminating a service that they would rather have. Granted, environmental, educational, and national defense issues are complicated, but the fact remains that the government is the only one that can “control” us, the corporations of the world can only ask us for our money.

Isaac

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Music not to give your mom

Mom was up this weekend. She wanted an external drive to store her burgeoning music collection. So I picked one up for her and showed her how to use it. She then got the idea that I could just transfer my itunes collection onto her new drive. Sure, why not? I did it, no problem. Of course when I loaded it up in her itunes library I realized that she now owned “Pussy Whipped” by Bikini Kill. I immediately went on a purging spree. Let’s see, “Dial M for Motherfucker” had to go, as did all of my NWA. She wasn’t going to appreciate Hole’s first album nor would she really dig “Fuck Religion, Fuck the Police, Fuck the Lot of You.” “Exile in Guyville” probably wasn’t going to get much playtime from her either. I ended up deleting entire genres. She’ll probably do some more but at least she won’t be aghast at anything on her computer (I think). Who knows, maybe I left some obscure songs by the Adicts, Xray Specs, or the Buzzcoxks on there that she won’t like. Eh, she’ll have to deal, she’ll like a lot of stuff…

Isaac

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I’ve “graduated”

The nurse administering my inoculations informed me that I have now “graduated”, I received my last rabies shot. That’s good since they’re like $140 a piece or something, but she was really excited for me. She kept touching my arm and called me “Love Bug”, a strange kind of thing to call a patient the first time you meet them. I got the feeling that she mostly worked with kids, but it did make the trip a little more interesting. Anyway, I’m done with the shots, now all I have to do is buy some health insurance and hope that the Israeli/Lbanon thing doesn’t screw up the rest of the middle east. Nothing much happens in Yemen really, there’s no money and hardly any foreigners. Anyway, my trip is looming and I’m really really excited!

Isaac

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42 freaking dollars!!!

Granted, I was below the “E” on my gas gauge, but still, 42 bucks? Sure am glad that I won’t be needing my car in another 103 days…. Who knows what will be available when I come back, maybe a car with 75mpg, or one that doesn’t use gas a tall… Hope all you commuters can manage…

Isaac

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An amazing blog…

I’ve already sent out an email to a bunch of people that I thought would appreciate this, but I thought that I’d post it here so that everyone knows about it. Forksplit is an anonymous blog written by a half Yemeni woman that is an excellent writer. She is also completely and utterly screwed up. Her parents are both nutjobs, her father is an alcoholic muslim, her mother is a New England WASP, and she smokes copious amounts of pot and downs lots of Zanex along with her growing alcohol problem. She is profane, witty, intelligent, cynical, self deprecating, incredibly compelling, and oddly lovable. I encourage you to get your daily does of bile and social commentary here.

www.forksplit.com

Isaac

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Can’t sleep

This is one of the many things I will not miss about my job. I am laying awake thinking about how a customer of mine let a relative bully her into a camera that she really didn’t want. He made a lousy camera salesman, not only did he sell her the camera that he wants, he over sold it. He promised things that it couldn’t possibly do and it was a camera that I never would have recommended to her. But what could I do? There’s no sense in arguing with the guy, why create a scene. I think that there’s a 50/50 chance that she’ll return the camera, I’m hoping she will so that I can get her one that will work for her. We’ll see. I really need to get to bed…

Isaac

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I’m over 10,000!!!

I’ve now had over 10,000 hits on my web page since I put it up on june 14th 2005. Don’t know why, but I’m proud of my little site (sniff sniff), it’s done so well! I keep meaning to add more content, I’ve let my recently read books section lag and there are bunches of music related pages I want to put up. I just haven’t been in the mood to do much with it. I hope that I will be able to put up lots of interesting things on my travels, some interesting pictures at least! We’ll see what I can do with it if I ever get off my ass…

Isaac