Categories
books economics

Competition and Predictably Irrational

I’ve picked up another book. It’s called “Predictably Irrational.” The author uses examples from experimental economics to teach us how we differ from how some economic models might suggest or assume we act. So far, there have been some interesting results, his discussion about the concept of “free” in particular is thought provoking.

One chapter is entitled “The fallacy of supply and demand.” Naturally, this caught my eye. He uses some experiments to show how ideas of what things are worth initially can be more or less arbitrarily set by advertising or other clever sales techniques. Ok, so far so good. The results are pretty convincing, but he doesn’t stop there. He then extrapolates these results into the idea that people’s thoughts on value are easily manipulated and therefore we can’t rely on markets and free markets ideas in general to bring about equitable trades since everyone is under the sway of the advertisers.

He’s way off. He left out a very important aspect of supply and demand, perhaps the most important one out there… competition. I am fully willing to believe that when confronted with a new thing, we don’t have a good idea of what it should cost or what value that thing has to us. His experiments show that that concept of value is easily skewed by all sorts of things. But a rational person doesn’t usually buy the first thing he sees, he checks around for prices. It is competition that tells us what we can expect to pay for something. Once we know that, we can figure out how we value that thing.

It isn’t clear to me what supply and demand even means without taking competition into account. So his chapter certainly doesn’t show any “fallacy” with that concept. Rational people check prices, who knew?

Categories
economics

Why I write this blog

A quote from Ludwig von Mises:

“Economics must not be relegated to classrooms and statistical offices and must not be left to esoteric circles. It is the philosophy of human life and action and concerns everybody and everything. It is the pith of civilization and of man’s human existence…

There is no means by which anyone can evade his personal responsibility. Whoever neglects to examine to the best of his abilities all the problems involved voluntarily surrenders his birthright to a self-appointed elite of supermen. In such vital matters blind reliance upon “experts” and uncritical acceptance of popular catchwords and prejudices is tantamount to the abandonment of self-determination and to yielding to other people’s domination. As conditions are today, nothing can be more important to every intelligent man than economics. His own fate and that of his progeny is at stake…

Whether we like it or not, it is a fact that economics cannot remain an esoteric branch of knowledge accessible only to small groups of scholars and specialists. Economics deals with society’s fundamental problems; it concerns everyone and belongs to all. It is the main and proper study of every citizen.”

I got this from the blog at the Mises institute. I recommend it highly.

Categories
economics free market politics

From 1850

“The delusion of the day is to enrich all classes at the expense of each other; it is to engender plunder under pretense of organizing it.”

Quite so, some things never change…

Categories
economics

Gold, money, and economic worries

I just finished reading “What is seen and Unseen” (read some of my previous posts about that). The basic idea is that every time the government wants to do something, the government has to take the money from people first and we need to pay attention to that. It’s a nice way of organizing your thoughts about government spending, but it isn’t overly accurate now.

Back in Bastiat’s day, all currency was backed by something, usually a metal like gold or silver. In other words, every pound note distributed had a corresponding pound of silver to go with it. The government could only distribute as much money as it had in metal reserves. Today, we have what is called fiat money. It is worth something because the government says it is and everyone goes along with it. Nowadays, the government can make all the money it wants whenever it wants. See this post for an explanation about why that is bad…

There is a small, but vocal group that says that we need to go back to a metal standard in order to avoid the problems that fiat money can lead to. That has some appeal, but it is never going to happen. Milton Friedman had some ideas on how to make fiat money behave a lot like backed currency. A big part of that involved taking the discretionary power of fixing the value of money away from the Fed. That isn’t going to happen either. There are some technical issues involved that I won’t go into, but there are some more pressing issues. Back then, money was synonymous with cash. It was easy to keep track of how much money there was because there was only one kind. These days, there is far more electronic money than cash, how would you back that up with anything? I worry that current spending habits are incompatible with backed money.

The more I read, the more I think I should be buying gold….

Categories
books economics

The essence of economics

I received the Bastiat collection the other day (published by Mises.org) and as expected, I am totally blown away by it. He proves that you can get the essence of economics without having to be a mathematician or spend an eternity in college studying it. This is his introduction to the first essay in the book, the famous, “That which is seen, and that which is not seen.”

“In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.

The same thing, of course, is true of health and morals. Often, the sweeter the first fruit of a habit, the more bitter are its later fruits: for example, debauchery, sloth, prodigality. When a man is impressed by the effect that is seen and has not yet learned to discern the effects that are not seen, he indulges in deplorable habits, not only through natural inclination, but deliberately.

This explains man’s necessarily painful evolution. Ignorance surrounds him at his cradle; therefore, he regulates his acts according to their first consequences, the only ones that, in his infancy, he can see. It is only after a long time that he learns to take account of the others. Two very different masters teach him this lesson: experience and foresight. Experience teaches efficaciously but brutally. It instructs us in all the effects of an act by making us feel them, and we cannot fail to learn eventually, from having been burned ourselves, that fire burns. I should prefer, in so far as possible, to replace this rude teacher with one more gentle: foresight. For that reason I shall investigate the consequences of several economic phenomena, contrasting those that are seen with those that are not seen.”

That is the essence of economics. Much of what he has to say is relevent to the current machinations of Washington DC. Pretty good for someone that was writing in the early 1800’s!

Categories
economics politics

Why is Obama spreading fear?

His remarks today basically amount to, “OMG! We need to do something now or else things will crash and burn! We need to do it now now now!!! Can’t you see how bad things are getting?”

A big part of consumer confidence is just that, confidence. If the next president, this so-called agent of hope and change, is saying that the end is near, are we so surprised that people aren’t spending money? Why on earth would they think that now is a good time to make purchases like houses, cars, etc. when the next president is saying we are on the brink of disaster?

So what should he do Isaac? Well, he should reassure us that the economy is going through a change, that things will not be the way they were before. But once those things that need to happen do happen (GM cough cough), the economy will pick up again. Even if that’s not the case, that is the message that he needs to spread, not doom and gloom. He doesn’t have to campaign anymore, he’s got the job.

Of course I know why he’s doing this. He sees this recession as a way of promoting his political aims. By making things sound awful, he makes it more likely that his ideas will come to pass because the politicians have to do something… Ugh…

Categories
economics

When a tax cut isn’t a tax cut…

I’ve heard that Obama wants to use “tax cuts” in order to stimulate the economy. That’s sound enough, when people have more money they either spend it or save it. Either way is good for the economy. When the government has it, it tends to get wasted. In addition to that, it is not spent in the ideal way by the people that make the money. In other words, let’s say that person x really wants to take a trip to Hawaii, but since he has to pay income taxes, he can’t do it. This may not sound like a big deal, but if that money is not supporting Hawaian tourist services (i.e. something that people actually want) and is instead supporting, say, Lockheed Martin, that’s quite a distortion. That also goes for charity BTW…. Multiply that by 200 million or so and you can see how screwed up the distribution of money is…

So OK, tax cuts are a good thing, so what’s the big deal? Here’s the big deal, it is only a tax cut if you both cut the taxes people pay AND lower spending. You see, every dollar the government spends it gets through taxes. So any deficit the government runs is really just deferred taxes. It sounds as though Obama wants to cut taxes AND raise spending. That is, effectively, a tax INCREASE. Any additional deficit spending is an increase in taxes at some point. It will have to be paid back at some point. And yes, inflation isn’t technically a tax, but it might as well be, it has essentially the same effect…

Categories
economics

The bailouts and inflation

You have no idea how happy it makes me to hear people ask, “Where are we getting the money for all of these bailouts?” The government has several options when it wants to pay for something. In an ideal world, they would pay for things as they came up. You know, stay within their budget… In that world, if they wanted to spend more, they would have to raise taxes in order to pay for it.

As we all know, that has no relationship to our reality. Our government uses deficit spending in order to pay for damn near everything, and these bailouts are no exception. So how are we going to pay for them? Well, they could simply raise taxes and pay off the debt. Not only is that not politically viable, I believe that every man, woman, and child in this country would have to pay upwards of $400,000 each in order to erase the current debt. Not very realistic… So the government simply pays over time. In other words, they pass the payments onto future generations.

There are two other possibilities. They could simply default on the debt. Congress could decide to declare the debt null and void and that would be that, a new start! Of course there would be some really serious consequences to that action. Among other things, they would have trouble borrowing again with bad credit…

The last thing is probably the most likely. Seignorage is a time honored technique with national accounts. What is that? That is paying for things by printing money. Great! Problem solved, right? Just print more money! Well, there are some big problems in doing that. In fact, it is essentially the definition of inflation. As the government prints more and more money, the more it devalues it. In other words, it takes more money to buy the same things. The things themselves have the same value, it just takes more monetary units (dollars, riyals, etc.) to buy them.

How does this work to pay off debts? Imagine that you take out a loan for $50,000. Now imagine that hyperinflation sets in and price levels rise very quickly. Before long, you’re making $7000 an hour. Why? The price of labor is just another price. It will rise along with the inflation rate or lag just behind it. It will take no time at all for you to pay off that loan.

All of this is totally opaque to the guy on the street. Rising prices are a mystery, they have no idea that the central bank is the culprit. Because of this, it isn’t as easy to pin it on someone. People get upset, and they think something should be done about it, but they don’t know who is to blame… Because of all of this, it is the most likely avenue the government will take to pay off this incredible debt. It may be the only way to pay it off…

Precious metals have long been considered a haven for people who want to avoid their savings dropping in value (think of it as the opposite of the loan scenario above). It isn’t that gold, silver, platinum, palladium, etc. are actually worth more, but the value of the currency is dropping with inflation. Traditionally, the metals maintain their value while the currency devalues. So if the bailout continue, look into the metals!

Categories
economics free market freedom

Vanity Fair econ… ugh.

A friend asked me what I though of this article in Vanity Fair. My basic thought is that you find what you look for. Everything he mentioned reminded me how much the government had screwed up. He enumerated all of the things that the government did or had power to do (Alan Greenspan, various legislation, etc.) and how disastrous they were and then concludes that “anti-regulation fanatics” were to blame for the current mess. Huh?

I think a more reasonable way to look at it is that the government either shouldn’t have the power it does (via the fed) or should stop trying to compensate for its market distorting reactions to other market distorting legislation (like Sarbanes Oxely etc.). Instead of picking out one fed chair and (rightfully) complain that he screwed some things up, why not ask why a person or board has that kind of power in the first place? Instead of complaining about the repeal of Sarbanes et. al, why not ask what the markets were reacting to that made that legislation first attractive and then unattractive? I’m willing to bet that it was a reaction to some sort of legislation that caused that law to be “needed” in the first place. I’m also willing to bet that both in the enactment and the repeal of that law, they got it wrong…

His sneering at self-correcting markets is especially galling, how would he know how well they work? First off, they don’t exist in the financial world. On top of that, they are never allowed to correct. No one ever claimed that perfection would result from totally deregulated markets, but they do indeed “correct” themselves. I’m ignoring the strawman that people have been chomping at the bit for totally deregulated markets. As far as I can tell, people have wanted less regulated markets, or at least minimally regulated ones.That’s not the same thing at all… Anyway, it is the attempt to mitigate these corrections that causes so much widespread trouble. Trying to “fix” the result of markets only leads to other consequences. Markets only work well if the negative things are allowed to happen. Stupidity and excessive risk taking should be their own punishment….

How people can propose more regulation to fix problems that have government’s fingerprints all over them really confounds me. Why does he think it is possible for effective legislation for such a complicated issue to come out of the political process? Why does he not think that even if we did get the most brilliant economists (even by his standards) running things via regulation that they would be replaced by other people eventually? If you give power to people to regulate things, the political process will make a hash out of the best intentions.

So I’m not going to attack his econ cred. I’d look pretty silly with my several semesters worth of econ vs. his nobel prize… I have no reason to disbelieve his analysis of cause and effect. I am attacking his myopic view of what regulation is capable of and of the process that creates that legislation. There isn’t any reason to think that different regulations wouldn’t cause other problems. This is, in a nutshell, why the vast majority of professional economists drive me crazy. They know their models well, but they confuse those things with economics.

The main point that I got out of it was “The party I don’t like made some decisions that had bad consequences, so they’re all stupid.” His juvenile worship of the philosopher/economist technocrat getting things right blinds him to the reality of the political process. Unfortunetly, this idea of “If only we had the right people administering the right laws, everything would be fine,” is probably the most widespread view out there. Sigh…. Freer markets are by no means perfect, but they are a hell of a lot more democratic. In a totally free market of exchange, the damage caused by bad decisions are mostly limited to the people involved in that exchange. In his world, if all of the politicians involved in his regulating efforts aren’t blessed with perfect foreknowledge of all consequences for years to come from their regulations, we all feel the effects of their decisions.

Categories
economics sports

Baseball and outrage

People are twittering over the Yankees signing C.C. Sabathia to a $160 million dollar contract over 7 years. “How could they be so caviler when the economy is so bad? How can they spend that kind of money when there are people out of jobs and losing their houses?” It’s pretty simple, signing him will make them money. If a company purchased a piece of machinery for that much money, who would complain? The Yankees aren’t “showing off” or spending money for the hell of it. They aren’t some spoiled rich kid spending like an idiot, they are a business and they think they are going to make money by spending this money. What’s so hard to understand?